Friday, October 29, 2010

Week 8 upon us....

So what's on the books for this week? I look forward to some great games and serious take downs!! 

  • Jax vs Dallas is going to be one of those games that really could go anywhere...
  • Will San Fran be able to chalk up a win?
  • With Oakland hot  and Seattle dampened...where will this go? More fire in Cali...or drizzling in the westcoast?
  • Miami in Cinncinati with a 3-3 stand against Cinncies state of despair coming off a division title. We had high expectations but are already on their last legs heading into a must win game at home against the Miami Dolphins
  • The Buffalo Bills were so close last week. Going against one of the top teams in the league in the Ravens, Ryan Fitzpatrick exploded for 382 yards and four touchdowns. However, in true Bills fashion, it simply was not enough as the Ravens won by a field goal in overtime.
    This week, the Bills will try again, this time against the Kansas City Chiefs. Fitzpatrick will try to bring the momentum from last week’s promising performance into his match up with the Chiefs’ 25th ranked secondary.
    Matt Cassel runs the Chiefs offense in principle, though when you throw the ball just 18 times the mantle of team leader may rest in the legs of your running back. To be fair, in the last two outings Cassel has thrown 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. With that kind of efficiency, Cassel makes it easier for the running backs to find space.



Lets see what our friends have to say...


It's obviously Halloween Sunday.  
Dallas is only a 6 1/2 point favorite at home against Jacksonville. Think what the odds on that would have been at the start of the season.
San Francisco and Denver getting to put on a real scary show for the blokes in England who are actually going to pay to watch these two disasters.
Detroit is favored?
The Jets are 6-point favorites over Green Bay?
Oakland is a favorite?
Brett Favre may still play with a fractured ankle.
And a slate of what looks like real ugly games other than the Sunday and Monday nighters.
Creepy stuff.
I can't see the Bengals being favored over Miami.
Do the Dolphins ever lose on the road? Do the Bengals ever win as favorites (1-9)?
Miami was the victims of one of the greatest heists and worst calls in NFL history when the officials pulled out some rule that if they don't have clear evidence of who recovered a fumble in the end zone, even though it seemed pretty clear that Miami had recovered it. The Dolphins are for real. The Bengals are still wearing an Ocho and Owens Batman and Robin costumes. The Dolphins are 13-4 in their lst 17 away games. They are 8-0 against the spread and 8-3 straight up as road dogs from Game 4 on.
Further, nine Bengals have been listed on the team's injury report including what seems to be their entire defensive backfield: Cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph (ankle), Leon Hall (hamstring) and Morgan Trent (knee), along with safeties Chinedum Ndukwe (knee) and Roy Williams (knee) did not practice Wednesday. And Pacman Adam Jones is gone for the year.
That leaves rookie Brandon Ghee as the Bengals' only healthy cornerback.
Even when they are healthy, the Bengals CBs and safeties have been weak. Last Sunday, Atlanta's Roddy White had 11 receptions and 201 yards against a team ranked 19th against the pass.
This week, Brandon Marshall gets to show his stuff.
On top of that LB Brandon Johnson has a knee injury and is questionable while DE Jonathan Fanene reinjured his hamstring and is out.
Dolphins plus the two points.
Denver is so obvious that even San Francisco should figure out that if they just hand the ball to Frank Gore they will win. I think I could put up 100 yards against the Denver defence. OK, maybe just 75.
Denver is 10-2 as dogs against a team coming off a straight-up favorite loss but the Bengals are 9-0 off a straight up favorite loss - 3-0 this year.
San Francisco TE Vernon Davis has an ankle injury but he expects to play and should have a big day; on the other side, Denver's WR Eddie Royal has a groin injury.
Taking 'Frisco minus 1 1/2.
Detroit has played better than their record. Washington has played worse than their record suggests.
Detroit gets Matthew Stafford back.
Washington is 0-4 before a bye week and 1-5 against teams coming off a bye.
Taking Detroit minus 2 1/2.
While Arizona lost 41-7 to Atlanta and 41-10 to San Diego, they have won their only two home games. They also have a lot of stats going their way - 9-0 with a losing record against teams off a straight-up and spread win, 11-1 straight up and 10-1 against the spread at home after a loss and playing a team coming off a win. Tampa has completely opposite stats like 3-14 away off a win vs. non division teams.
In Thursday's practice, the Bucs were without offensive linemen Jeremy Trueblood and Keydrick Vincent. LB Geno Hayes also didin't practice according to the St. Petersburg Times which reported that Hayes and Trueblood both suffered knee injuries in Sunday’s 18-17 win over St. Louis while Vincent, who didn't play last week, has a bad back.
I'll take the Arizona -3.
All the stats point to Tennessee. Especially if Vince Young starts and it looks like he will. But I can't do it. I know the Chargers are banged up and Phil Rivers is still looking for a healthy receiver. But if the Chargers don't keep turning the ball over and the Titans don't keep being the recipients of turnovers, the Chargers finally win.
Taking San Diego minus 3 1/2.
Carolina finally got a win and St. Louis is 15-37 against the NFC. But the Rams are also 5-1 as favorites of 2 or more against less than .250 non-divisional teams and 23-6 at home against less than .500 teams.
Last year the Panthers had RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart slashing up opposing defenses - Williams and Stewart became the first RBs on the same team to each rush for more than 1,100 yards.
Not this year. With OT likely stiff out and
And now Williams is hurt, missing practice on Thursday and Stewart having just 148 rushing yards on 50 carries.
Neither Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen scare anyone - especially without a receiver not named Steve Smith.
Taking the Rams -3.
Indianapolis has so many injuries. On top of Pro Bowl TE Dallas Clark and WR Austin Collie out when the Colts face a Texan team that is ranked dead last against the pass and now it looks like Joseph Addai could also be out, it's hard to take the Colts. But Peyton Manning has had two weeks to figure it out and Houston, as well as their woes against the pass, don't play well on the road and are 1-7 as dogs after scoring more than 28 points and facing a winning team.
Without Addai, the Colts, who finally found a running game in their last game - against Washington - will be left with two guys named Mike Hart and perhaps Donald Brown, who is still nursing a hamstring injury. Texas is good against the run so Manning will be throwing all day. Without his buddies Clark and Collie. But WR Anthony Gonzalez, who hasn’t played a full game since 2008, is probable according to the Indianapolis Star.
Taking Houston seems like the wise play but I'm not quite willing to pull the trigger.
Even without Tony Romo - who wasn't doing all that much anyway - the Cowboys should be able to beat Jacksonville by more than a touchdown. The Cowboys excell in these situations going 6-1 Dallas Coat at home off back-to-back straight-up and against-the-spread losses, 9-3 as favorites off a straight up loss after giving up more than 28 points in their lst game and 11-3 in October as favorites with revenge against non-division team -yes, Jacksonville beat the 'boys the last time they met.
Interestingly, WR Roy Williams wasn't at the Cowboys practice on Thursday. No reason has been given. Other than Williams never gets open.
According to Vito Stellino in the Florida Times-Union, David Garrard is expected to return as the Jags QB.
I haven't been enamoured by Pittsburgh all year and I think the Saints, who somehow lost to Cleveland - yes, Cleveland - last week will be able to handle them.
DE Aaron Smith is gone after tearing a triceps tendon. How valuable is Smith? Consider this: in the last 15 games Smith has missed the Steelers are 7-8 and have allowed an average of 22.5 points and 114.1 yards rushing, with Smith the Steelers are 23-7 and give up only 71 rushing yards per game.
Their other DE Brent Keisel is also injured although John Harris of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review says Keisel is 'optimistic' he will be able to play. If not that would leave the Steelers with backup DEs Nick Eason and Ziggy Hood. Lamar Woodley is also questionable.
As a few final notes while Seattle is listing half their team missing Wednesday's practice, whle the Raiders are getting some bodies back, Oakland is 0-12 as favorites.
Green Bay is held together with tape and glue and the rolling Jets say Darrelle Revis is 100 per cent which means they can let Revis and CB Antonio Cromartie do whatever they want.
But, the Packers have lost a lot of real close games and given that the Jets don't score a lot the line - Jets minus 6 - seems a little high.

The Lineman’s NFL picks — Week 8

OCT 29, 2010 05:51 EDT
           
NFL/Another tough week for the Lineman, who is feeling a bit like Tony Romo and Brett Favre— beat up. But as bad as Week Seven was, it was still a move in the right direction so we look forward to an even better Week Eight.
 Record: 19-23. Last week 2-4. Pick of the Week: 3-4
PICK OF THE WEEK
Buffalo Bills (0-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) (Line Chiefs minus-7.5)
Sure, I know what you’re thinking: it’s easy to bet against the NFL’s only winless team.
But there is more to this pick than the obvious, like the fact the Chiefs are the NFL’s best rushing team and the Bills are the worst defending against the run giving up more than 174 yards per game (ypg).
KC quarterback Matt Cassel will never be mistaken for Peyton Manning or Tom Brady but why throw the ball when you can simply hand it to Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles with the Chiefs averaging 176.5 yards per game on the ground.
Arrowhead has also been a happy hunting ground for the Chiefs, who are unbeaten at home, scoring an average of more than 31 points a game.
The Bills haven’t been able to win anywhere – although they came close to shocking the Ravens last week falling 37-34.
How Buffalo put up 34 points on Ray Lewis and the Ravens I’m still not sure. Maybe Baltimore was only playing with eight men on defence.
Whatever the reason, it won’t happen again this weekend. Harvard grad Ryan Fitzpatrick was wicked awesome throwing for close to 400 yards and four TDs and the KC pass defence has gone MIA on occasion.
But take KC and the sunshine band and give up the 7.5. That’s the way, uh-huh uh-huh, I like it, uh-huh, uh-huh.
- – - -
Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at New England Patriots (5-1) (Line Patriots minus-5.5)
Brett Favre has a broken ankle and the Patriots are on a roll riding a four-game win streak. Wait a second, maybe this should be my Pick of the Week.
In fact, it nearly was but you just can’t ever count out Favre coming back to ruin your Sunday.
Favre has made it awkward for coach Brad Childress by saying he’s ready to play with broken bones and unless they amputate his injured leg, he will make his 292nd consecutive start.
With Favre or without him, the Vikings offence has enough weapons to worry a Patriots defence that gives up a lot of points and yards, particularly through the air, ranking third worst in the league against the pass.
Randy Moss makes his first appearance back at Foxboro since the Pats shipped the disgruntled wide receiver to Minny.
Before parting ways, Moss vented on Pats fans for not appreciating him and no doubt would love to drive that point home with a big game against his former team.
Vikings can also get it done on the ground, with running back Adrian Peterson leading NFL in rushing by averaging 114 ypg.
But Tom Brady and the Patriots can also put up plenty of points, averaging an NFL best 29.5 per game and are nearly unbeatable at home. Brady has gone 23 consecutive regular-season home starts without a loss.
The bottom line is, I just can’t see a 41-year-old granddad with a broken leg, who limped off the field last week looking in need of a walker, getting the job done.
Patriot Games. Give up the 5.5 and take the Pats.
- – - -
Tennessee Titans (5-2) at San Diego Chargers (2-5) (Line Chargers minus-3.5)
The Chargers have the NFL’s top ranked offence, top ranked defence and Philip Rivers has tossed for a league best 2,344 yards. Very impressive.
Just one problem, despite all the Chargers glossy numbers there is one BIG ugly one – and that number is two, as in just two wins.
San Diego has a long history of getting seasons off to plodding starts but if this campaign was going any slower the Chargers would be in reverse.
So with the season approaching the midway mark, the time has come for the Chargers to shift into gear.
Tipped as Super Bowl contender, the Chargers are mired in a three-game slump and their only two wins have come against the mediocre Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Chargers will get a chance to prove they are indeed a championship calibre team this Sunday when they take on the surging Titans, who are riding a three-game winning streak and have won all three of their road games.
QB Vince Young, nursing a knee and ankle sprain, is expected to get the start having been rushed back to duty with backup Kerry Collins bothered by a sprained finger on his throwing hand.
Tennessee running back Chris Johnson has rushed for 100 yards or more in nine consecutive road games.
Titans have lost six straight to Chargers.
Time to re-Charge, slow start over. Take San Diego and give up the 3.5.
- – - -
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3) (Line Bucs plus-3.5)
Doing his best Rex Ryan imitation, Bucs coach Raheem Morris, told reporters that, right now, Tampa is the best team in the NFC. Then added, “There I said it”. Indeed he did.
Perhaps not everyone believes Morris but his team does.
Tampa’s second-year QB Josh Freeman has not received a whole lot of attention down in Florida but looks to be the real deal and is cool under-pressure, firing a last second touchdown last Sunday to earn the Bucs an 18-17 win over the Rams.
The Cardinals are a mystery, a team that has been out-scored by 62 points yet has managed to put together a 3-3 record to sit one game out of the NFC West lead.
Arizona ranks last in total offense (237.8 ypg) passing (146.2 ypg) and sits near the bottom in several defensive categories, including points per game (26.7) and yards (368.7).
The Cardinals quarterbacking remains unreliable. Rookie Max Hall may recover from the concussion he received last week otherwise it will be Derek Anderson back calling plays after losing the starting job.
Despite Morris’s boast, the Bucs are not the best team in the NFC. In fact they’re not even the best team in the NFC South. But they are better than the Cardinals and for this week that’s all that matters.
Take the Bucs and the 3.5 points.
- – - -
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (1-5) (Line Cowboys minus-6.5)
Cowboys QB Tony Romo is out and Jaguars starter David Garrard is back after missing last week’s blowout loss to KC with a concussion.
Things certainly look glum in the Big D. Romo is gone for maybe two months with a broken collarbone, the team has a short week coming off a Monday Night beat down and any hope of playing in a home Super Bowl is hanging by the slimmest of threads.
A 2-5 team has gone on to make the NFL post-season before but no one has ever crawled out of a 1-6 hole.
Welcome to the last chance saloon quarterback Jon Kitna, who will make his first start since 2008.
Kitna looked like deer caught in the headlights coming on in relief of Romo against the Giants but will not face the same pressure from a Jags defence that is yielding an average of 29.9 points a game and has given up 72 in their last two contests.
Dallas does have Pro Bowl talent on both sides of the ball, DeMarcus Ware is a sack machine and rookie Dez Bryant is being talked up as the next great Cowboys receiver.
This is a game Dallas should win but the big question is whether the Cowboys have already waved the white flag. They quit last week after Romo went down and now will have to find the heart to go on.
The Big D has stood for ‘Disillusioned’ and ‘Disarray’ this season but now the Cowboys must turn it into ‘Desire’.
The Cowboys have lost three straight and now get one last chance to put their season back on track.
Cowboys come out shooting. Take Dallas and give up the 6.5.
- – - -
Carolina Panthers (1-5) at St Louis Rams (3-4) (Rams minus-2.5)
On the road the Rams have looked like the team that won only one game last season but at home they have played like Super Bowl contenders racking up impressive wins over the Redskins, Seahawks and Chargers.
After losing a heartbreaker 18-17 last Sunday in Tampa the Rams are back home and will host the dysfunctional Panthers, who picked up their first win of the season a week ago.
Panthers coach John Fox has had trouble sticking with one quarterback starting the season with Matt Moore, then trying rookie Jimmy Clausen and then switching back to Moore.
There should be no waffling this Sunday.
Certainly something clicked last week for Moore, who completed as many passes for nearly as many yards in the win over San Fran as he did in the first three games of the season before he was benched.
Moore or Clausen, the Panthers offense has sucked and even with the win over the Niners it ranks last in the league in scoring averaging just 12.9 points a game. Carolina also ranks second last in passing, averaging 164 yards, while they average less than 100 yards a game on the ground.
Defensively the Panthers have been respectable and their secondary above average, ranking fourth in the NFL, allowing just 182 ypg.
Their run defense is not nearly as threatening, which could mean more work for Rams running back Steven Jackson, who is expected to play despite undergoing finger surgery.
While Carolina’s quarterbacking picture is murky, the Rams’ is crystal clear with Sam Bradford proving he was more than worthy of the number one overall pick.
With Bradford getting all the attention, a very solid Rams defense that is allowing just 18.7 ppg has been overlooked.
Meet me in St. Louis. Take the Rams and give up the 2.5.
PHOTO: Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick stretches in vain trying to pick up a first down against the Baltimore Ravens in the second half of their NFL football game in Baltimore, Maryland October 24, 2010. Fitzpatrick came up short and the Bills had to punt the ball to the Ravens. REUTERS/Joe Giza


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NFL Point Spreads For Week 8 - Week Eight NFL Football Point Spread - NFL Spreads 10/31 - 11/1, 2010
Date & TimeFavoriteSpreadUnderdog
10/31 1:00 ETSan Francisco
(At London)
-2Denver
10/31 1:00 ETAt Dallas-6.5Jacksonville
10/31 1:00 ETAt Detroit-2.5Washington
10/31 1:00 ETAt NY Jets-6Green Bay
10/31 1:00 ETAt St. Louis-3Carolina
10/31 1:00 ETAt Cincinnati-1.5Miami
10/31 1:00 ETAt Kansas City-7.5Buffalo
10/31 4:05 ETAt San Diego-3.5Tennessee
10/31 4:15 ETAt Arizona-3Tampa Bay
10/31 4:15 ETAt Oakland-2.5Seattle
10/31 4:15 ETAt New England-6.5Minnesota
10/31 8:20 ETAt New Orleans-1.5Pittsburgh

Monday Night Football Point Spread
11/1 8:35 ETAt Indianapolis-5.5Houston



NFL SCOREBOARD

Sunday, 10/31
Monday, 11/1

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